Thursday, October 28, 2010

The good news and the bad news about re-offending

I have a bad habit. I immediately suspect 'good news' stories.

NewstalkZB reported yesterday that even the Parole Board was surprised at the reduction of re-offending by prisoners out on parole.

Since 2002 the rate of offending while on parole has more than halved, Parole Board chairman Sir David Carruthers says these statistics are better than anticipated

Even the Parole Board it surprised at re-offending figures released today

In the past eight years the rate of offending while on parole has more than halved, from around 100 offences per month in 2002.


The 'good news' also makes the NZ Herald;

An analysis of Parole Board decisions shows that despite an increase in the number of parolees, the number of people committing crimes while on parole has more than halved - dropping from about 100 a month in 2002 to about 45 a month.


However, the graphs below, from the latest Corrections Annual Report show little change in re-offending across all prisoners. In fact the re-conviction rate is climbing.



So I am not sure how this squares with the 'good news' story.

Prisoners who do not get parole are re-offending more than those who do?

The re-offending rate jumps once off parole?

Or perhaps if prisoners are paroled later in their sentences then the period they spend on parole would be shorter and the opportunity to re-offend while on parole is reduced.

Whatever the answer is, a 'bad news' story must co-exist.

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